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2002–03 South Pacific cyclone season
The 2002–03 South Pacific cyclone season was the most active tropical cyclone season since 1997–98, with ten tropical cyclones occurring within the South Pacific basin between 160°E and 120°W. The season started earlier than normal, with two systems developing before the official start of the season on November 1, 2002, while the final system dissipated on June 9, 2003, after the season had officially ended on April 30. During the season, tropical cyclones were officially monitored by the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) in Nadi, Fiji and the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres in Brisbane, Australia and Wellington, New Zealand. The United States Armed Forces through the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), also monitored the basin and issued unofficial warnings for American interests. RSMC Nadi attaches a number and an F suffix to tropical disturbances that occur within the basin, while the JTWC designates significant tropical cyclones with a number and a P suffix. RSMC Nadi, TCWC Wellington and TCWC Brisbane all use the Australian Tropical Cyclone Intensity Scale and estimate windspeeds over a ten-minute period, while the JTWC estimates sustained winds over a one-minute period, which are subsequently compared to the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Scale (SSHS).
The season began with Tropical Depression 17F on July 3, several months prior to the official start of the season. In late December, the strongest cyclone of the season, Cyclone Zoe severely affected many islands in the South Pacific, particularly the island of Tikopia. Zoe remains the strongest cyclone recorded in the Southern Hemisphere. Shortly after, in mid-January, Cyclone Ami struck Fiji as a Category 3 cyclone, where it caused US$51.2 million in damage. Cyclone Erica caused considerable damage to New Caledonia as a Category 4 cyclone, causing numerous power outages. The final storm of the season, Cyclone Gina, formed well outside the bounds of the conventional tropical cyclone season, existing entirely in the month of June and causing some damage to Tikopia. As a result of tropical cyclones in the 2002–03 season, US$67.2 million in damages was caused, along with 20 fatalities.
==Seasonal forecasts==
During November 2002, New Zealand's National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research predicted that there would be an eastwards shift in activity during the season, with more tropical cyclones than normal expected to the east of the date line, due to well established weak to moderate El Niño conditions. As a result, the island nations of Wallis and Futuna, Niue, Samoa, Tokelau, and the Southern Cook Islands were predicted to experience a higher than average number of tropical cyclones.〔 The Solomon Islands, Fiji, Tuvalu, Tonga, French Polynesia, New Zealand and the Northern Cook Islands were predicted to experience an average number of tropical cyclones, while Southern Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu and New Caledonia were predicted to experience a reduced number of tropical cyclones.〔 In January 2003, NIWA issued an updated outlook, listing the Northern Cook Islands and French Polynesia as areas predicted to experience an above average number of tropical cyclones. In contrast, Vanuatu was predicted to experience below average cyclone activity. The Solomon Islands and Tonga were now predicted to experience a reduced number of tropical cyclones, with all other countries expected to face the same risk as the November outlook.〔
抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』
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